Areté Club Blog

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1. Tom Allan
   Posted August 10, 2009 at 5:11 am | Permalink

   By way of introduction in to this blog, my name is Tom Allan and I have been a member of the Arete club since inception. I was kindly invited to the very first meeting where two inspiring young gentleman spoke of their adventures around the world: Alistair Humphries who had cycled round the globe solo; and Jake Meyer, who at 21 became the youngest man to climb the highest peak on every continent. I was left mesmerized and envious by their words and cursed myself for doing nothing with my first 28 years. I have since found the Arete club an inspiring forum for discussion and feel extremely fortunate to have met Sara and her network of outstanding individuals.

   For a day job I work in the Oil and Gas industry as a Commercial manager but am an Arabist by background. Having grown up in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf I have a real passion for the Middle East; it is a ‘region’ I instinctively feel at home within. The decision to study the language and politics of this fascinating, beautiful and complex (and therefore often misunderstood) mélange of peoples was an easy one and I have since spent many happy hours discussing politics and football down the back streets of many Arab cities whilst sucking on a delicious Apple nargileh. A life in the Energy world has enabled me to employ my passion and as I write I am organizing my first trip to Iraq where we are in the process of setting up two Joint Venture operations based in Erbil. Therefore the recent dinner: “Rebuilding Iraq: Lessons Learned from Security, Business and Political Perspectives” was of great interest to myself.

   So what are the lessons to be learned? Personally and sadly I believe the Iraq story has a long way to run and that there are many lessons we have still to both identify and learn.

   The security issues surrounding Iraq have been often gruesome to watch in recent years. It appears to me that lessons learned from previous conflicts have taken a long time to be heeded in Iraq. For a country to grow then people must feel safe and be allowed to go about their daily lives without disruption and in full separation from insurgents. Simple non? To do this the security services must engage, live-amongst but most importantly listen to the local population. It seemingly took 3 years, until the influence of Generals Petreus and Odierno, before this strategy came in to full effect. The amount of civilian participation seems to have been pitifully small in the early days of ‘occupation’ and at what cost. The civilian population must understand what we are doing, why we are there and have confidence in the security which a fairly elected government puts in place. No doubt the western world lost a great deal of respect for its ‘kill’ attitude early on particularly in the Muslim world which it should have been trying so hard to court post 9/11. But today at least the recorded figures suggest that the violence is in retreat. Fewer civilians were killed in May of this year than in any month since 2003.

   The politics of Iraq will continue to be complex in the medium term and fraught with insecurity amongst Iraqis themselves. As Sara has mentioned, the longer the Iraqi government stalls in incorporating Sunnis as well as Shiites into government and security services the greater the danger that tens of thousands of tough, armed Iraqis will stray. This will be a particularly tough problem to deal with. The troubles of Iraq have been witnessed across the Middle East often bloodily many times before and sometimes without solution. The Arab peoples are hard to unite at the best of times, just look at the Arab league who often struggle to organise the location of a meeting let alone make a decision. There are several internal and foreign influences at play here and it will be a real test of resolve for the Iraqi government to stay together in the next few years and we must support them in any way we can but without prejudice. If they lack this resolve and cannot provide a unified and cross-sectarian government then the chances of civil war become ever more likely. And what future for Kurdistan?

   The lessons in doing business in Iraq will be learned thick and fast in the coming months. The obvious favours granted towards American firms and the lack of engagement with local talent was a mistake in the beginning and caused resentment all round the world not just in Iraq. Not a way to win hearts and minds. The lack of nation building legislation in place did not help this of course, but hopefully this will firm up as troops withdraw and the Iraqi government begins to fend for itself. This is key to economic recovery, investment and most importantly domestic stability.

   So now the immediate future as I see it:

   A crucial general election is due in January 2010 upon which the world will watch with keen eyes. President Obama will be desperate to witness a peaceful poll leading to a stable government so he can complete his election promise of withdrawal. In accordance with the Status of Forces Agreement, the US military has recently withdrawn from Iraq’s cities. This pull-out however has been accompanied by a pick-up in violence, raising concerns amongst policy makers and generals at the ability of the Iraqi military to uphold security. Hopefully this is just a spasm (which was predicted by many analysts) but what to do if it isnt?

   A surprisingly competitive but sadly disputed Kurdish election has also taken place recently. Masoud Barzani was comfortably re-elected as the region’s president but the KDP and in particular PUK grip on power may be weakening. Jalal Talabani, the PUK’s founding leader, who has been Iraq’s national president and a proponent of compromise in the region, looks likely to lose his job next year to a Sunni Arab. Kurdish independence therefore looks no closer and indeed increased instability within the region itself may be likely. Not good. Surely Nouri Al-Maliki must explore the possibility of ties across sectarian divisions if Iraq is to have any sort of future?

   Iraq’s greatest prize and I believe a fundamental key to domestic stability – oil – was hardly fought over recently. The first bidding round for eight large oil and gas fields, led to no agreement on seven of the fields on offer. (However, the one deal agreed should boost Iraqi oil output by 2m barrels/day and therefore its bottom line). Oil revenues are key to boosting to social and economic spending and despite this mixed success first up, foreign Oil firms will continue to follow Iraqi progression with interest. But make no mistake they can survive without it in the medium term. Naturally risk averse they will not invest in an area that has high security risk and an unstable legislative framework. Offshore Brazil and Norway can swallow IOC investment dollars for the next 10 years at least. Real GDP growth is forecast to slow in line with the world recession and god help us if the oil price starts to drop again.

   So where does Iraq go from here?

   Very briefly and to my mind the powers that be in Iraq must be brave and continue with foreign troop withdrawal. They must actively pursue legislative reform, and quickly, to increase investment in the near term. Most importantly those in government must reach across the sectarian divide and try above all to rise above their ingrained fears of each other and surrounding influences. Only with this can the Iraqi people feel safe and rise from this nightmare. This is the end game.

2. sara
   Posted August 11, 2009 at 8:17 am | Permalink

   Video of Sheikh Tarik Al Abdullah from FOX news in an interview with Greta on participating in the next elections running for Prime Minister and creating change for Iraq.

   http://www.foxnews.com/search-results/m/25687339/sheikh-tarik-al-abdullah.htm